Yankees @ Royals
2026-05-25Win probability
NYY
48.1%
KC
36.4%
Extras needed
15.4%
Expected runs
NYY expected
3.71
KC expected
3.31
Total expected
7.02
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 7 / 10
Most likely final scores
| Score (NYY–KC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 3 | 4.69% |
| 3 – 2 | 4.37% |
| 4 – 3 | 4.30% |
| 2 – 3 | 3.85% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.83% |
| 4 – 2 | 3.76% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.72% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.40% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 9.8% | 90.2% |
| 6.5 | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| 7.5 | 40.2% | 59.8% |
| 8.5 | 26.5% | 73.5% |
| 9.5 | 17.1% | 82.9% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →