Twins @ White Sox
2026-05-25Win probability
MIN
36.3%
CWS
51.5%
Extras needed
12.2%
Expected runs
MIN expected
4.88
CWS expected
5.47
Total expected
10.35
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 10 / 15
Most likely final scores
| Score (MIN–CWS) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 5 | 3.13% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.97% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.83% |
| 4 – 5 | 2.81% |
| 4 – 4 | 2.77% |
| 5 – 6 | 2.72% |
| 3 – 5 | 2.60% |
| 3 – 4 | 2.48% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| 6.5 | 88.9% | 11.1% |
| 7.5 | 80.7% | 19.3% |
| 8.5 | 70.3% | 29.7% |
| 9.5 | 58.1% | 41.9% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →