Marlins @ Blue Jays
2026-05-25Win probability
MIA
28.2%
TOR
60.1%
Extras needed
11.7%
Expected runs
MIA expected
4.14
TOR expected
5.48
Total expected
9.62
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 9 / 14
Most likely final scores
| Score (MIA–TOR) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 5 | 3.58% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.21% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.14% |
| 3 – 6 | 3.05% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.02% |
| 4 – 6 | 3.02% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.85% |
| 5 – 6 | 2.75% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 36.7% | 63.3% |
| 6.5 | 84.7% | 15.3% |
| 7.5 | 74.2% | 25.8% |
| 8.5 | 62.2% | 37.8% |
| 9.5 | 49.2% | 50.8% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →