MLB Sims

Astros @ Rangers

2026-05-25

Globe Life Field · park factor 1.01 · first pitch 2026-05-25T23:05:00Z

Win probability

HOU
34.8%
TEX
49.1%
Extras needed
16.2%

Expected runs

HOU expected
2.89
TEX expected
3.33
Total expected
6.22
Total — 10/median/90
3 / 6 / 9

Most likely final scores

Score (HOU–TEX)Probability
2 – 35.33%
2 – 24.74%
3 – 24.73%
3 – 34.55%
3 – 44.07%
2 – 43.99%
1 – 33.47%
4 – 33.37%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 5.0% 95.0%
6.5 43.8% 56.2%
7.5 29.5% 70.5%
8.5 17.9% 82.1%
9.5 9.8% 90.1%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →