Astros @ Rangers
2026-05-25Win probability
HOU
34.8%
TEX
49.1%
Extras needed
16.2%
Expected runs
HOU expected
2.89
TEX expected
3.33
Total expected
6.22
Total — 10/median/90
3 / 6 / 9
Most likely final scores
| Score (HOU–TEX) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2 – 3 | 5.33% |
| 2 – 2 | 4.74% |
| 3 – 2 | 4.73% |
| 3 – 3 | 4.55% |
| 3 – 4 | 4.07% |
| 2 – 4 | 3.99% |
| 1 – 3 | 3.47% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.37% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 5.0% | 95.0% |
| 6.5 | 43.8% | 56.2% |
| 7.5 | 29.5% | 70.5% |
| 8.5 | 17.9% | 82.1% |
| 9.5 | 9.8% | 90.1% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →