Reds @ Mets
2026-05-25Win probability
CIN
41.3%
NYM
44.9%
Extras needed
13.8%
Expected runs
CIN expected
4.51
NYM expected
4.67
Total expected
9.18
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (CIN–NYM) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 4 | 3.82% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.46% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.09% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.05% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.04% |
| 5 – 5 | 3.00% |
| 4 – 3 | 2.95% |
| 3 – 3 | 2.69% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 31.8% | 68.2% |
| 6.5 | 80.8% | 19.2% |
| 7.5 | 69.6% | 30.4% |
| 8.5 | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| 9.5 | 43.9% | 56.1% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →