Cubs @ Pirates
2026-05-25Win probability
CHC
37.5%
PIT
50.9%
Extras needed
11.6%
Expected runs
CHC expected
5.44
PIT expected
5.96
Total expected
11.40
Total — 10/median/90
7 / 11 / 16
Most likely final scores
| Score (CHC–PIT) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 6 | 2.85% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.76% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.70% |
| 6 – 6 | 2.69% |
| 6 – 5 | 2.63% |
| 5 – 7 | 2.54% |
| 4 – 5 | 2.48% |
| 6 – 7 | 2.42% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 58.7% | 41.3% |
| 6.5 | 93.8% | 6.2% |
| 7.5 | 88.1% | 11.9% |
| 8.5 | 80.3% | 19.7% |
| 9.5 | 70.3% | 29.7% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →