D-backs @ Giants
2026-05-25Win probability
ARI
48.4%
SF
38.1%
Extras needed
13.5%
Expected runs
ARI expected
4.67
SF expected
4.29
Total expected
8.95
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (ARI–SF) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 3 | 3.54% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.50% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.31% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.15% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.14% |
| 5 – 5 | 3.02% |
| 3 – 3 | 2.76% |
| 3 – 4 | 2.75% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 29.4% | 70.6% |
| 6.5 | 79.0% | 21.0% |
| 7.5 | 67.1% | 32.9% |
| 8.5 | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| 9.5 | 40.9% | 59.1% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →