Nationals @ Braves
2026-05-23Win probability
WSH
24.0%
ATL
64.6%
Extras needed
11.3%
Expected runs
WSH expected
3.94
ATL expected
5.53
Total expected
9.47
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (WSH–ATL) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 5 | 3.72% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.68% |
| 3 – 6 | 3.49% |
| 4 – 6 | 3.08% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.02% |
| 3 – 4 | 2.94% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.65% |
| 2 – 5 | 2.63% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 35.5% | 64.5% |
| 6.5 | 83.6% | 16.4% |
| 7.5 | 73.4% | 26.6% |
| 8.5 | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| 9.5 | 47.5% | 52.5% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →