Cardinals @ Reds
2026-05-23Win probability
STL
58.7%
CIN
29.8%
Extras needed
11.5%
Expected runs
STL expected
5.91
CIN expected
4.55
Total expected
10.45
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 10 / 15
Most likely final scores
| Score (STL–CIN) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 4 | 3.10% |
| 6 – 4 | 3.06% |
| 6 – 5 | 2.79% |
| 6 – 3 | 2.72% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.71% |
| 4 – 4 | 2.60% |
| 4 – 3 | 2.56% |
| 7 – 4 | 2.51% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| 6.5 | 89.4% | 10.6% |
| 7.5 | 81.3% | 18.7% |
| 8.5 | 71.4% | 28.6% |
| 9.5 | 59.3% | 40.7% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →