Mariners @ Royals
2026-05-23Win probability
SEA
44.8%
KC
41.0%
Extras needed
14.2%
Expected runs
SEA expected
3.95
KC expected
3.84
Total expected
7.79
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 8 / 11
Most likely final scores
| Score (SEA–KC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 4 | 3.77% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.75% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.74% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.70% |
| 3 – 2 | 3.57% |
| 4 – 2 | 3.33% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.31% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.10% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 16.2% | 83.8% |
| 6.5 | 65.7% | 34.3% |
| 7.5 | 51.8% | 48.2% |
| 8.5 | 37.8% | 62.3% |
| 9.5 | 25.7% | 74.3% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →