Pirates @ Blue Jays
2026-05-23Win probability
PIT
48.7%
TOR
37.8%
Extras needed
13.5%
Expected runs
PIT expected
4.58
TOR expected
4.21
Total expected
8.79
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (PIT–TOR) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 3 | 3.63% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.50% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.40% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.28% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.26% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.06% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.03% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.51% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 26.8% | 73.2% |
| 6.5 | 76.7% | 23.3% |
| 7.5 | 64.6% | 35.4% |
| 8.5 | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| 9.5 | 38.0% | 62.0% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →