Athletics @ Padres
2026-05-23Win probability
OAK
53.0%
SD
32.2%
Extras needed
14.8%
Expected runs
OAK expected
3.77
SD expected
3.06
Total expected
6.84
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 7 / 10
Most likely final scores
| Score (OAK–SD) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 3 | 4.63% |
| 3 – 2 | 4.55% |
| 3 – 3 | 4.39% |
| 4 – 2 | 4.38% |
| 2 – 3 | 3.72% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.52% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.31% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.28% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 8.9% | 91.1% |
| 6.5 | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| 7.5 | 37.7% | 62.3% |
| 8.5 | 24.7% | 75.3% |
| 9.5 | 15.4% | 84.6% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →