Mets @ Marlins
2026-05-23Win probability
NYM
37.7%
MIA
46.9%
Extras needed
15.5%
Expected runs
NYM expected
3.57
MIA expected
3.95
Total expected
7.52
Total — 10/median/90
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Most likely final scores
| Score (NYM–MIA) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 3 | 4.27% |
| 4 – 4 | 4.01% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.98% |
| 2 – 3 | 3.86% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.55% |
| 4 – 2 | 3.35% |
| 2 – 4 | 3.24% |
| 2 – 2 | 3.09% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 13.9% | 86.1% |
| 6.5 | 61.9% | 38.1% |
| 7.5 | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| 8.5 | 33.6% | 66.4% |
| 9.5 | 22.4% | 77.6% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →