Twins @ Red Sox
2026-05-23Win probability
MIN
49.6%
BOS
36.2%
Extras needed
14.2%
Expected runs
MIN expected
4.01
BOS expected
3.50
Total expected
7.51
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 7 / 11
Most likely final scores
| Score (MIN–BOS) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 3 | 4.35% |
| 4 – 2 | 4.04% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.91% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.90% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.69% |
| 2 – 3 | 3.48% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.42% |
| 3 – 2 | 3.37% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 13.5% | 86.5% |
| 6.5 | 62.3% | 37.7% |
| 7.5 | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| 8.5 | 33.4% | 66.6% |
| 9.5 | 22.2% | 77.8% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →