MLB Sims

Dodgers @ Brewers

2026-05-23

American Family Field · park factor 0.99 · first pitch 2026-05-23T23:15:00Z

Win probability

LAD
54.3%
MIL
32.3%
Extras needed
13.4%

Expected runs

LAD expected
4.44
MIL expected
3.63
Total expected
8.07
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12

Most likely final scores

Score (LAD–MIL)Probability
4 – 34.02%
3 – 33.57%
5 – 43.54%
5 – 33.52%
3 – 43.45%
4 – 43.37%
4 – 23.07%
3 – 23.05%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 19.1% 80.9%
6.5 70.3% 29.7%
7.5 56.1% 43.9%
8.5 42.5% 57.5%
9.5 29.8% 70.2%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →