Astros @ Cubs
2026-05-23Win probability
HOU
23.3%
CHC
65.6%
Extras needed
11.1%
Expected runs
HOU expected
3.86
CHC expected
5.56
Total expected
9.42
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (HOU–CHC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 5 | 3.51% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.24% |
| 3 – 6 | 3.12% |
| 4 – 6 | 3.07% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.05% |
| 4 – 4 | 2.93% |
| 2 – 5 | 2.81% |
| 5 – 6 | 2.66% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 35.1% | 64.9% |
| 6.5 | 82.9% | 17.1% |
| 7.5 | 72.3% | 27.7% |
| 8.5 | 59.8% | 40.2% |
| 9.5 | 47.0% | 53.0% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →