Tigers @ Orioles
2026-05-23Win probability
DET
31.9%
BAL
55.6%
Extras needed
12.5%
Expected runs
DET expected
4.18
BAL expected
5.13
Total expected
9.31
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (DET–BAL) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 5 | 3.23% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.18% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.09% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.04% |
| 3 – 6 | 2.90% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.81% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.76% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.74% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 32.4% | 67.6% |
| 6.5 | 81.0% | 19.0% |
| 7.5 | 70.2% | 29.8% |
| 8.5 | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| 9.5 | 44.7% | 55.3% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →