White Sox @ Giants
2026-05-23Win probability
CWS
58.9%
SF
28.1%
Extras needed
13.0%
Expected runs
CWS expected
4.83
SF expected
3.65
Total expected
8.49
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (CWS–SF) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 3 | 4.07% |
| 5 – 3 | 4.04% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.42% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.31% |
| 4 – 2 | 3.23% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.20% |
| 6 – 3 | 2.96% |
| 3 – 4 | 2.91% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 22.7% | 77.3% |
| 6.5 | 73.6% | 26.4% |
| 7.5 | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| 8.5 | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| 9.5 | 33.9% | 66.1% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →