Rockies @ D-backs
2026-05-23Win probability
COL
30.2%
ARI
56.8%
Extras needed
13.0%
Expected runs
COL expected
3.65
ARI expected
4.67
Total expected
8.33
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (COL–ARI) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 4 | 4.12% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.61% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.55% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.47% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.33% |
| 2 – 4 | 3.27% |
| 2 – 5 | 3.08% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.07% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 21.3% | 78.7% |
| 6.5 | 72.0% | 28.0% |
| 7.5 | 58.2% | 41.8% |
| 8.5 | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| 9.5 | 31.6% | 68.4% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →