Indians @ Phillies
2026-05-23Win probability
CLE
55.5%
PHI
32.1%
Extras needed
12.4%
Expected runs
CLE expected
5.15
PHI expected
4.29
Total expected
9.44
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 9 / 14
Most likely final scores
| Score (CLE–PHI) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 4 | 3.44% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.29% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.26% |
| 6 – 4 | 3.15% |
| 4 – 5 | 2.89% |
| 5 – 3 | 2.75% |
| 6 – 3 | 2.66% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.60% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 34.7% | 65.3% |
| 6.5 | 82.4% | 17.6% |
| 7.5 | 72.0% | 28.0% |
| 8.5 | 59.9% | 40.1% |
| 9.5 | 46.9% | 53.1% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →