Nationals @ Braves
2026-05-22Win probability
WSH
24.2%
ATL
64.2%
Extras needed
11.6%
Expected runs
WSH expected
3.92
ATL expected
5.52
Total expected
9.45
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (WSH–ATL) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 5 | 3.35% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.34% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.11% |
| 4 – 6 | 3.08% |
| 3 – 6 | 3.08% |
| 4 – 4 | 2.96% |
| 2 – 5 | 2.57% |
| 3 – 3 | 2.52% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 35.2% | 64.8% |
| 6.5 | 82.7% | 17.3% |
| 7.5 | 72.3% | 27.7% |
| 8.5 | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| 9.5 | 47.6% | 52.4% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →