MLB Sims

Rangers @ Angels

2026-05-22

Angel Stadium · park factor 0.99 · first pitch 2026-05-23T01:38:00Z

Win probability

TEX
71.0%
LAA
18.0%
Extras needed
11.1%

Expected runs

TEX expected
5.16
LAA expected
3.03
Total expected
8.19
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12

Most likely final scores

Score (TEX–LAA)Probability
4 – 33.92%
5 – 33.82%
5 – 23.76%
4 – 23.70%
6 – 33.65%
6 – 23.26%
3 – 23.06%
3 – 32.99%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 20.2% 79.8%
6.5 70.6% 29.4%
7.5 57.0% 43.0%
8.5 43.4% 56.6%
9.5 30.4% 69.6%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →