Rays @ Yankees
2026-05-22Win probability
TB
25.0%
NYY
64.1%
Extras needed
11.0%
Expected runs
TB expected
4.33
NYY expected
5.99
Total expected
10.32
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 10 / 14
Most likely final scores
| Score (TB–NYY) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 6 | 3.07% |
| 4 – 5 | 2.87% |
| 3 – 5 | 2.75% |
| 3 – 6 | 2.75% |
| 3 – 7 | 2.64% |
| 4 – 4 | 2.61% |
| 5 – 6 | 2.55% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.53% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| 6.5 | 88.7% | 11.3% |
| 7.5 | 80.9% | 19.1% |
| 8.5 | 70.6% | 29.4% |
| 9.5 | 58.8% | 41.2% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →