Cardinals @ Reds
2026-05-22Win probability
STL
59.5%
CIN
28.7%
Extras needed
11.8%
Expected runs
STL expected
5.89
CIN expected
4.54
Total expected
10.43
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 10 / 15
Most likely final scores
| Score (STL–CIN) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 4 | 3.34% |
| 6 – 4 | 3.05% |
| 5 – 3 | 2.93% |
| 4 – 4 | 2.77% |
| 6 – 3 | 2.66% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.65% |
| 6 – 5 | 2.60% |
| 4 – 5 | 2.49% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| 6.5 | 89.3% | 10.7% |
| 7.5 | 81.0% | 19.1% |
| 8.5 | 70.6% | 29.4% |
| 9.5 | 58.1% | 41.9% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →