Mariners @ Royals
2026-05-22Win probability
SEA
41.9%
KC
44.0%
Extras needed
14.1%
Expected runs
SEA expected
4.11
KC expected
4.17
Total expected
8.28
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (SEA–KC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 4 | 3.99% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.65% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.57% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.24% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.22% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.10% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.96% |
| 4 – 5 | 2.89% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 21.0% | 79.0% |
| 6.5 | 71.2% | 28.7% |
| 7.5 | 58.2% | 41.8% |
| 8.5 | 43.6% | 56.4% |
| 9.5 | 31.3% | 68.7% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →