Pirates @ Blue Jays
2026-05-22Win probability
PIT
52.1%
TOR
34.4%
Extras needed
13.5%
Expected runs
PIT expected
4.78
TOR expected
4.07
Total expected
8.85
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (PIT–TOR) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 4 | 3.47% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.47% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.32% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.31% |
| 6 – 4 | 3.03% |
| 4 – 5 | 2.92% |
| 3 – 3 | 2.91% |
| 3 – 4 | 2.85% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 27.7% | 72.3% |
| 6.5 | 78.3% | 21.7% |
| 7.5 | 66.1% | 33.9% |
| 8.5 | 52.8% | 47.2% |
| 9.5 | 39.5% | 60.5% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →