Athletics @ Padres
2026-05-22Win probability
OAK
56.2%
SD
28.6%
Extras needed
15.2%
Expected runs
OAK expected
3.83
SD expected
2.86
Total expected
6.70
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 7 / 10
Most likely final scores
| Score (OAK–SD) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 3 | 4.83% |
| 4 – 2 | 4.52% |
| 3 – 2 | 4.41% |
| 4 – 3 | 4.33% |
| 2 – 2 | 3.94% |
| 2 – 3 | 3.53% |
| 4 – 1 | 3.39% |
| 5 – 2 | 3.36% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 7.9% | 92.1% |
| 6.5 | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| 7.5 | 35.8% | 64.2% |
| 8.5 | 24.0% | 76.0% |
| 9.5 | 14.4% | 85.6% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →