Mets @ Marlins
2026-05-22Win probability
NYM
38.3%
MIA
47.4%
Extras needed
14.3%
Expected runs
NYM expected
3.75
MIA expected
4.10
Total expected
7.85
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (NYM–MIA) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 3 | 4.06% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.90% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.74% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.59% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.36% |
| 2 – 3 | 3.30% |
| 2 – 4 | 3.27% |
| 4 – 2 | 2.77% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 17.5% | 82.5% |
| 6.5 | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| 7.5 | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| 8.5 | 38.2% | 61.8% |
| 9.5 | 26.9% | 73.1% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →