Twins @ Red Sox
2026-05-22Win probability
MIN
47.6%
BOS
36.8%
Extras needed
15.6%
Expected runs
MIN expected
3.66
BOS expected
3.31
Total expected
6.97
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 7 / 10
Most likely final scores
| Score (MIN–BOS) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 3 | 4.73% |
| 4 – 3 | 4.18% |
| 3 – 2 | 4.05% |
| 4 – 2 | 3.89% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.76% |
| 2 – 2 | 3.66% |
| 2 – 3 | 3.54% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.33% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 9.4% | 90.6% |
| 6.5 | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| 7.5 | 38.8% | 61.2% |
| 8.5 | 25.9% | 74.0% |
| 9.5 | 16.2% | 83.8% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →