MLB Sims

Dodgers @ Brewers

2026-05-22

American Family Field · park factor 0.99 · first pitch 2026-05-22T23:40:00Z

Win probability

LAD
59.1%
MIL
28.1%
Extras needed
12.8%

Expected runs

LAD expected
4.70
MIL expected
3.54
Total expected
8.24
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12

Most likely final scores

Score (LAD–MIL)Probability
4 – 43.82%
5 – 33.78%
4 – 33.72%
5 – 23.49%
5 – 43.40%
4 – 23.38%
3 – 33.32%
3 – 43.04%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 20.5% 79.5%
6.5 71.5% 28.5%
7.5 57.8% 42.2%
8.5 43.4% 56.6%
9.5 30.9% 69.1%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →