Astros @ Cubs
2026-05-22Win probability
HOU
21.0%
CHC
67.3%
Extras needed
11.7%
Expected runs
HOU expected
3.85
CHC expected
5.82
Total expected
9.67
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 10 / 14
Most likely final scores
| Score (HOU–CHC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 4 | 3.33% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.16% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.07% |
| 4 – 5 | 2.99% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.98% |
| 3 – 6 | 2.93% |
| 2 – 6 | 2.62% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.61% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 38.1% | 61.9% |
| 6.5 | 85.0% | 15.0% |
| 7.5 | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| 8.5 | 62.4% | 37.6% |
| 9.5 | 50.4% | 49.6% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →