Tigers @ Orioles
2026-05-22Win probability
DET
33.5%
BAL
53.5%
Extras needed
12.9%
Expected runs
DET expected
4.18
BAL expected
4.94
Total expected
9.12
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (DET–BAL) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 4 | 3.83% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.64% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.32% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.26% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.85% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.82% |
| 3 – 6 | 2.78% |
| 5 – 3 | 2.64% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 31.0% | 69.0% |
| 6.5 | 80.5% | 19.5% |
| 7.5 | 69.6% | 30.4% |
| 8.5 | 56.1% | 43.9% |
| 9.5 | 42.7% | 57.3% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →