White Sox @ Giants
2026-05-22Win probability
CWS
54.4%
SF
32.2%
Extras needed
13.4%
Expected runs
CWS expected
4.43
SF expected
3.64
Total expected
8.08
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (CWS–SF) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 3 | 4.44% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.79% |
| 4 – 2 | 3.55% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.51% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.46% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.28% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.22% |
| 5 – 2 | 3.14% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 19.3% | 80.7% |
| 6.5 | 70.5% | 29.5% |
| 7.5 | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| 8.5 | 41.8% | 58.2% |
| 9.5 | 29.3% | 70.7% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →