Rockies @ D-backs
2026-05-22Win probability
COL
28.2%
ARI
58.8%
Extras needed
12.9%
Expected runs
COL expected
3.72
ARI expected
4.88
Total expected
8.59
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (COL–ARI) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 4 | 3.82% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.70% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.66% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.26% |
| 3 – 6 | 3.23% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.23% |
| 2 – 5 | 2.96% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.82% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 24.8% | 75.2% |
| 6.5 | 75.6% | 24.4% |
| 7.5 | 62.9% | 37.1% |
| 8.5 | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| 9.5 | 35.9% | 64.1% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →