Indians @ Phillies
2026-05-22Win probability
CLE
54.5%
PHI
33.1%
Extras needed
12.4%
Expected runs
CLE expected
5.44
PHI expected
4.61
Total expected
10.05
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 10 / 14
Most likely final scores
| Score (CLE–PHI) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 4 | 3.11% |
| 6 – 4 | 2.99% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.80% |
| 5 – 3 | 2.78% |
| 4 – 5 | 2.75% |
| 6 – 5 | 2.65% |
| 6 – 3 | 2.49% |
| 4 – 4 | 2.49% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 42.6% | 57.4% |
| 6.5 | 87.0% | 13.0% |
| 7.5 | 78.0% | 22.0% |
| 8.5 | 67.2% | 32.8% |
| 9.5 | 54.9% | 45.1% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →