Blue Jays @ Yankees
2026-05-21Win probability
TOR
18.6%
NYY
70.9%
Extras needed
10.5%
Expected runs
TOR expected
3.42
NYY expected
5.57
Total expected
8.99
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (TOR–NYY) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2 – 5 | 3.72% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.70% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.55% |
| 3 – 6 | 3.51% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.47% |
| 2 – 4 | 3.39% |
| 2 – 6 | 3.08% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.83% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| 6.5 | 79.1% | 20.9% |
| 7.5 | 67.4% | 32.6% |
| 8.5 | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| 9.5 | 40.7% | 59.3% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →