Pirates @ Cardinals
2026-05-21Win probability
PIT
58.5%
STL
28.8%
Extras needed
12.7%
Expected runs
PIT expected
4.76
STL expected
3.64
Total expected
8.40
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (PIT–STL) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 3 | 3.87% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.81% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.36% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.33% |
| 5 – 2 | 3.24% |
| 4 – 2 | 3.22% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.20% |
| 3 – 4 | 2.98% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 22.7% | 77.3% |
| 6.5 | 73.9% | 26.1% |
| 7.5 | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| 8.5 | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| 9.5 | 33.7% | 66.3% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →