MLB Sims

Athletics @ Angels

2026-05-21

Angel Stadium · park factor 0.99 · first pitch 2026-05-22T01:38:00Z

Win probability

OAK
76.6%
LAA
13.6%
Extras needed
9.8%

Expected runs

OAK expected
4.89
LAA expected
2.46
Total expected
7.34
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 7 / 11

Most likely final scores

Score (OAK–LAA)Probability
5 – 24.60%
4 – 24.56%
4 – 33.95%
6 – 23.91%
5 – 13.85%
5 – 33.75%
4 – 13.57%
3 – 23.56%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 12.9% 87.1%
6.5 59.9% 40.1%
7.5 45.3% 54.7%
8.5 31.8% 68.2%
9.5 20.5% 79.5%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →