Mets @ Nationals
2026-05-21Win probability
NYM
51.6%
WSH
36.4%
Extras needed
12.0%
Expected runs
NYM expected
5.93
WSH expected
5.29
Total expected
11.22
Total — 10/median/90
7 / 11 / 16
Most likely final scores
| Score (NYM–WSH) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 5 | 3.14% |
| 6 – 5 | 2.86% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.81% |
| 6 – 6 | 2.62% |
| 4 – 5 | 2.60% |
| 6 – 4 | 2.60% |
| 7 – 5 | 2.47% |
| 5 – 6 | 2.44% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 56.6% | 43.4% |
| 6.5 | 93.3% | 6.7% |
| 7.5 | 87.6% | 12.4% |
| 8.5 | 79.3% | 20.7% |
| 9.5 | 68.7% | 31.3% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →