Rockies @ D-backs
2026-05-21Win probability
COL
29.3%
ARI
57.9%
Extras needed
12.8%
Expected runs
COL expected
3.94
ARI expected
5.07
Total expected
9.02
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (COL–ARI) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 5 | 3.62% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.61% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.30% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.20% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.79% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.76% |
| 2 – 4 | 2.74% |
| 3 – 3 | 2.73% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 29.3% | 70.7% |
| 6.5 | 79.0% | 21.0% |
| 7.5 | 67.5% | 32.5% |
| 8.5 | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| 9.5 | 41.5% | 58.5% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →