Indians @ Tigers
2026-05-21Win probability
CLE
38.4%
DET
47.6%
Extras needed
14.0%
Expected runs
CLE expected
3.96
DET expected
4.29
Total expected
8.24
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (CLE–DET) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 4 | 3.94% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.90% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.65% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.33% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.20% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.19% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.04% |
| 5 – 3 | 2.98% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 21.4% | 78.6% |
| 6.5 | 72.8% | 27.2% |
| 7.5 | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| 8.5 | 44.7% | 55.3% |
| 9.5 | 32.2% | 67.8% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →