Braves @ Marlins
2026-05-21Win probability
ATL
66.7%
MIA
21.7%
Extras needed
11.6%
Expected runs
ATL expected
5.43
MIA expected
3.65
Total expected
9.08
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 9 / 13
Most likely final scores
| Score (ATL–MIA) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 3 | 3.69% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.49% |
| 6 – 3 | 3.42% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.30% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.11% |
| 6 – 4 | 3.05% |
| 4 – 2 | 2.80% |
| 5 – 2 | 2.79% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 29.9% | 70.1% |
| 6.5 | 79.8% | 20.2% |
| 7.5 | 68.5% | 31.5% |
| 8.5 | 54.8% | 45.2% |
| 9.5 | 41.6% | 58.4% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →