Blue Jays @ Yankees
2026-05-20Win probability
TOR
17.5%
NYY
72.5%
Extras needed
9.9%
Expected runs
TOR expected
3.57
NYY expected
5.93
Total expected
9.49
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 9 / 14
Most likely final scores
| Score (TOR–NYY) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 5 | 3.42% |
| 3 – 6 | 3.28% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.21% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.18% |
| 4 – 6 | 3.14% |
| 3 – 7 | 3.05% |
| 2 – 6 | 3.01% |
| 2 – 5 | 2.92% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 34.7% | 65.3% |
| 6.5 | 83.2% | 16.8% |
| 7.5 | 72.8% | 27.2% |
| 8.5 | 60.4% | 39.6% |
| 9.5 | 47.5% | 52.5% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →