MLB Sims

Giants @ D-backs

2026-05-20

Chase Field · park factor 1.02 · first pitch 2026-05-20T19:40:00Z

Win probability

SF
28.5%
ARI
57.9%
Extras needed
13.6%

Expected runs

SF expected
3.55
ARI expected
4.70
Total expected
8.26
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12

Most likely final scores

Score (SF–ARI)Probability
3 – 43.98%
3 – 53.81%
3 – 33.72%
4 – 43.43%
2 – 43.38%
4 – 53.26%
2 – 53.15%
4 – 33.11%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 20.4% 79.6%
6.5 70.5% 29.5%
7.5 56.9% 43.1%
8.5 43.0% 57.0%
9.5 31.0% 69.0%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →