Giants @ D-backs
2026-05-20Win probability
SF
28.5%
ARI
57.9%
Extras needed
13.6%
Expected runs
SF expected
3.55
ARI expected
4.70
Total expected
8.26
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (SF–ARI) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 4 | 3.98% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.81% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.72% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.43% |
| 2 – 4 | 3.38% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.26% |
| 2 – 5 | 3.15% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.11% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 20.4% | 79.6% |
| 6.5 | 70.5% | 29.5% |
| 7.5 | 56.9% | 43.1% |
| 8.5 | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| 9.5 | 31.0% | 69.0% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →