Pirates @ Cardinals
2026-05-20Win probability
PIT
52.5%
STL
33.8%
Extras needed
13.8%
Expected runs
PIT expected
4.54
STL expected
3.93
Total expected
8.48
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (PIT–STL) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 3 | 3.90% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.58% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.40% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.33% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.29% |
| 4 – 2 | 3.00% |
| 3 – 4 | 2.98% |
| 6 – 4 | 2.85% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 23.4% | 76.6% |
| 6.5 | 73.5% | 26.5% |
| 7.5 | 60.7% | 39.3% |
| 8.5 | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| 9.5 | 34.3% | 65.7% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →