MLB Sims

Athletics @ Angels

2026-05-20

Angel Stadium · park factor 0.99 · first pitch 2026-05-21T01:38:00Z

Win probability

OAK
76.5%
LAA
13.5%
Extras needed
10.0%

Expected runs

OAK expected
4.77
LAA expected
2.34
Total expected
7.11
Total — 10/median/90
4 / 7 / 11

Most likely final scores

Score (OAK–LAA)Probability
5 – 25.07%
4 – 24.66%
4 – 14.13%
5 – 14.09%
6 – 23.92%
5 – 33.78%
3 – 23.52%
4 – 33.39%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 10.2% 89.8%
6.5 57.0% 43.0%
7.5 42.3% 57.7%
8.5 28.5% 71.5%
9.5 17.8% 82.2%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →