Mets @ Nationals
2026-05-20Win probability
NYM
57.7%
WSH
30.7%
Extras needed
11.6%
Expected runs
NYM expected
6.03
WSH expected
4.97
Total expected
11.00
Total — 10/median/90
7 / 11 / 15
Most likely final scores
| Score (NYM–WSH) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 6 – 5 | 2.94% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.86% |
| 6 – 4 | 2.84% |
| 4 – 4 | 2.68% |
| 5 – 5 | 2.65% |
| 7 – 4 | 2.57% |
| 5 – 6 | 2.47% |
| 7 – 5 | 2.46% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 54.1% | 45.9% |
| 6.5 | 92.1% | 7.9% |
| 7.5 | 85.5% | 14.5% |
| 8.5 | 76.0% | 24.0% |
| 9.5 | 65.6% | 34.4% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →