MLB Sims

Brewers @ Cubs

2026-05-20

Wrigley Field · park factor 0.99 · first pitch 2026-05-20T23:40:00Z

Win probability

MIL
40.0%
CHC
45.9%
Extras needed
14.1%

Expected runs

MIL expected
4.01
CHC expected
4.20
Total expected
8.21
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12

Most likely final scores

Score (MIL–CHC)Probability
3 – 43.96%
4 – 43.83%
4 – 33.76%
3 – 33.52%
3 – 53.32%
4 – 53.16%
5 – 43.01%
5 – 32.92%

Over / under

LineOverUnder
10.5 19.8% 80.2%
6.5 70.6% 29.4%
7.5 56.8% 43.2%
8.5 42.8% 57.2%
9.5 29.8% 70.2%
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths. No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet). Full methodology →