Brewers @ Cubs
2026-05-20Win probability
MIL
40.0%
CHC
45.9%
Extras needed
14.1%
Expected runs
MIL expected
4.01
CHC expected
4.20
Total expected
8.21
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (MIL–CHC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 3 – 4 | 3.96% |
| 4 – 4 | 3.83% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.76% |
| 3 – 3 | 3.52% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.32% |
| 4 – 5 | 3.16% |
| 5 – 4 | 3.01% |
| 5 – 3 | 2.92% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 19.8% | 80.2% |
| 6.5 | 70.6% | 29.4% |
| 7.5 | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| 8.5 | 42.8% | 57.2% |
| 9.5 | 29.8% | 70.2% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →