Dodgers @ Padres
2026-05-20Win probability
LAD
80.4%
SD
11.1%
Extras needed
8.5%
Expected runs
LAD expected
5.59
SD expected
2.63
Total expected
8.23
Total — 10/median/90
5 / 8 / 12
Most likely final scores
| Score (LAD–SD) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 5 – 2 | 4.39% |
| 6 – 2 | 3.92% |
| 4 – 2 | 3.71% |
| 6 – 3 | 3.69% |
| 5 – 3 | 3.67% |
| 6 – 1 | 3.28% |
| 5 – 1 | 3.19% |
| 4 – 3 | 3.06% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 20.7% | 79.3% |
| 6.5 | 71.8% | 28.2% |
| 7.5 | 57.9% | 42.1% |
| 8.5 | 44.1% | 55.9% |
| 9.5 | 30.9% | 69.1% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →