Astros @ Twins
2026-05-20Win probability
HOU
29.8%
MIN
57.6%
Extras needed
12.6%
Expected runs
HOU expected
4.36
MIN expected
5.51
Total expected
9.87
Total — 10/median/90
6 / 10 / 14
Most likely final scores
| Score (HOU–MIN) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 4 – 5 | 3.27% |
| 3 – 5 | 3.23% |
| 5 – 5 | 3.09% |
| 3 – 4 | 3.06% |
| 4 – 4 | 2.92% |
| 4 – 6 | 2.78% |
| 5 – 4 | 2.62% |
| 5 – 6 | 2.59% |
Over / under
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 40.8% | 59.2% |
| 6.5 | 86.7% | 13.3% |
| 7.5 | 77.2% | 22.8% |
| 8.5 | 65.4% | 34.6% |
| 9.5 | 53.0% | 47.0% |
These numbers come from 10,000 Poisson simulations using season-to-date team strengths.
No starting pitcher, lineup, or weather adjustment is applied (yet).
Full methodology →